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  1. Return-path: <ota+space.mail-errors@andrew.cmu.edu>
  2. X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson
  3. Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests)
  4.           ID </afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/Mailbox/wbTMeIC00VcJA3=E4x>;
  5.           Sun, 30 Dec 1990 01:35:00 -0500 (EST)
  6. Message-ID: <sbTMdqq00VcJA39U4n@andrew.cmu.edu>
  7. Precedence: junk
  8. Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
  9. From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
  10. To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
  11. Date: Sun, 30 Dec 1990 01:34:32 -0500 (EST)
  12. Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #690
  13.  
  14. SPACE Digest                                     Volume 12 : Issue 690
  15.  
  16. Today's Topics:
  17.            Could Iraq shoot down recon satellites?
  18.         SECTION 8 OF 8  -  U.S.T.R. PART I (uuencoded)
  19.  
  20. Administrivia:
  21.  
  22.     Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to
  23.   space+@andrew.cmu.edu.  Other mail, esp. [un]subscription notices,
  24.   should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to
  25.              tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu
  26.  
  27. ----------------------------------------------------------------------
  28.  
  29. Date:     Fri, 14 Dec 90 01:30 CDT
  30. From: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey <HIGGINS%FNAL.BITNET@UICVM.uic.edu>
  31. Subject:  Could Iraq shoot down recon satellites?
  32. Original_To:  SPACE
  33.  
  34. Iraq is under the watchful eyes of a number of superpower
  35. reconnaissance satellites in low orbit.  It's not a *large* number.
  36.  
  37. Iraq has built its own ballistic missiles, variations on the Soviet
  38. "Scud."
  39.  
  40. Suppose you're an Iraqi missile engineer. Suppose Saddam Hussein
  41. called you and your colleaques in and said, "Boys, I want you to turn
  42. those missiles into anti-satellite weapons as soon as you can." Could
  43. you do it?  [Note that I am supposing you are a boy, too, a reasonable
  44. conjecture in the Iraqi defense establishment. (-:]
  45.  
  46. --Delivery vehicles which can reach range R ought, in a naive
  47. analysis, to be able to reach an altitude of .7071R (that is,
  48. [sqrt(2)/2]R, assuming a 45-degree launch angle gets you the maximum
  49. range).   R was about 500 km last I looked.
  50.  
  51. --This should be enough to get you to orbital altitude, but not
  52. orbital speed.  Then you put an essentially stationary payload in the
  53. path of a fast-moving satellite.  This is more or less the method
  54. employed by the (defunct) American air-launched ASAT missile.
  55.  
  56. --You don't need a precision-guided homing vehicle to damage your
  57. target satellite.  Arrive at a point on the satellite's orbit just as
  58. the satellite is arriving there too.  Fill some volume of space with
  59. small metal pellets.  Oldest trick in the book.  (The book is *The
  60. Exploration of Space*, Arthur C. Clarke, 1950.)
  61.  
  62. --Hence the problem hinges on making the cloud of pellets (volume
  63. which has pellets above some density with high kill probablilty)
  64. larger than the probable error of the delivery vehicle.   This is
  65. probably very tough.  I know the Iraqi IRBMs are not very accurate.  I
  66. should do some numbers.  Guess I'll do a follow-up posting soon.
  67.  
  68. --Tracking your targets is quite do-able.  Are they listed in the
  69. Two-Line Elements?  Could Iraq get these from Kelso's BBS in Ohio?  If
  70. not, optical or radar tracking could be kluged up.  It's be nice to
  71. have observations.
  72.  
  73. --Recon sats can manuver.  If you attack one, the allies will move all
  74. the others.  And they will keep jinking if necessary (how often? Once
  75. a day?) I presume the Iraqis would be hard pressed to keep up with
  76. this. Therefore:
  77.  
  78. --A surprise attack, taking out all adversary satellites in a short
  79. time, is called for.  This is a one-shot deal, so you'd better play
  80. this card it until it's militarily useful.  It could be used to cover
  81. preparations for a sudden attack.
  82.  
  83. --If you are fully successful,  the other guys will be blind until
  84. more low-orbit satellites can be launched.  I am fairly sure the
  85. Soviets could have one up in a week or two.   I am fairly sure the
  86. USAF will take several months.
  87.  
  88. --If you are partly successful, you may at least create a gap in photo
  89. coverage, a recurring period of time when you may safely move your
  90. forces around without being observed optically.
  91.  
  92. --This trick will not work on high-altitude satellites. I believe
  93. geosynchronous orbit is used mostly for signals-intelligence and
  94. missile-warning spacecraft, not high-resolution photoreconnaissance.
  95. So the allied capability will be somewhat crippled, but there will
  96. still be some intelligence flowing from space.
  97.  
  98. --In particular, the ICBM-warning birds will probably see your
  99. launches, so your adversaries will know exactly what you're up to.
  100. (Hmm... can we make them look like gas-well fires?  (-:  I guess not.)
  101.  
  102. --The usefulness of this idea is dubious in the current context of
  103. Iraqi military operations.  It's still an interesting excercise.   It
  104. may apply to some other IRBM-packing nation in some future conflict.
  105.  
  106.      O~~*           /_) ' / /   /_/ '  ,   ,  ' ,_  _           \|/
  107.    - ~ -~~~~~~~~~~~/_) / / /   / / / (_) (_) / / / _\~~~~~~~~~~~zap!
  108.  /       \                          (_) (_)                    / | \
  109.  |       |                      Bill Higgins
  110.  \       /                      Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
  111.    -   -                        Bitnet:                HIGGINS@FNALB.BITNET
  112.      ~                          Internet:             HIGGINS@FNAL.FNAL.GOV
  113.                                 SPAN/Hepnet/Physnet:         43011::HIGGINS
  114.  
  115. ------------------------------
  116.  
  117. Date:    Thu, 13 Dec 90 21:46:43 MST
  118. From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler)
  119. Subject: SECTION 8 OF 8  -  U.S.T.R. PART I (uuencoded)
  120. X-St-Vmsmail-To: ST%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu"
  121.  
  122.     Uuencoded Document:  Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports - Part I
  123.  
  124.                               ------------------
  125.  
  126.                                 SECTION 8 of 8
  127.  
  128. Strip all of the lines from this message down to and including the "cut" line
  129. below.  Save the resulting message.  After you have obtained the other
  130. sections, combine them all into a single file (in the proper sequence).
  131. Then uudecode the file.  This will decode the file and place the resulting
  132. document in the file "part1.doc".  It may then be sent to a printer for
  133. printing.
  134.  
  135. This is the last section of Part I of the document.  Now collect the
  136. sections for Part II of Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports and repeat
  137. the above procedure.  When finished, you should have two files containing the
  138. two parts to this document ("part1.doc", and "part2.doc").  Parts I and II
  139. are stand-alone files and should not be combined prior to printing.
  140.  
  141.  
  142. ---------------------------------> Cut Here <----------------------------------
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  371. M(" @(" @(" @(" @("!$96-E;6)E<B Q,RP@,3DY, H*"@H*"B @(" @(" @
  372. M(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @+2 T-2 M"@H*(" @*&EF(&YE
  373. M8V5S<V%R>2D@87,@82!R969E<F5N8V4@=&\@=&AE('-O;&%R('1E<G)E<W1R
  374. M:6%L(')E<&]R=',N"@H@(" @(" @($YO=R!T:&%T('=E(&AA=F4@=&AE(&)A
  375. M8VMG<F]U;F0@;F5C97-S87)Y('1O('5N9&5R<W1A;F0@=&AE('-O;&%R"B @
  376. M('1E<G)E<W1R:6%L("!R97!O<G1S+"!W92!M87D@8F5G:6X@82!S>7-T96UA
  377. M=&EC(&%N86QY<VES(&]F('1H92!S=')U8RT*(" @='5R92!A;F0@8V]N=&5N
  378. M="!O9B!T:&4@<F5P;W)T<R!T:&5M<V5L=F5S+B @5&AE(&%C8V]M<&%N>6EN
  379. M9R!D;V-U;65N= H@(" H<&%R=" @24DI("!W:6QL(&1E<V-R:6)E('1H92!S
  380. M;VQA<B!T97)R97-T<FEA;"!R97!O<G1S(&EN(&1E=&%I;"!W:71H"B @(&%C
  381. M8V]M<&%N>6EN9R!H:6YT<R!A;F0@<')O8V5D=7)E<R!T:&%T(&UA>2!B92!U
  382. M<V5D('1O("!E>'1R86-T("!U<V5F=6P*(" @86YD('!E<G1I;F5N="!D871A
  383. M+@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*
  384. M"@H*"@H*(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @("!$96-E;6)E<B Q
  385. M,RP@,3DY, H*"@H*"B @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @
  386. M(" @+2!I("T*"@H*"@H@(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(%1A
  387. M8FQE(&]F($-O;G1E;G1S"@H*"@H@("!);G1R;V1U8W1I;VX@+BXN+BXN+BXN
  388. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  389. M(" Q"@H@("!#:&%R86-T97)I<W1I8W,@;V8@=&AE(%-U;B N+BXN+BXN+BXN
  390. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(" R"@H@("!3=6YS<&]T
  391. M<R!A;F0@=&AE(%-O;&%R($9L=7@@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  392. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(" S"@H@("!4:&4@4W5N<W!O="!#>6-L92 N+BXN
  393. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  394. M(" V"@H@("!4:&4@,C(@665A<B!3;VQA<B!#>6-L92 N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  395. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(" V"@H@("!4:&4@4V]L
  396. M87(@071M;W-P:&5R92 N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  397. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(" W"@H@("!4:&4@4&AO=&]S<&AE<F4@+BXN+BXN
  398. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  399. M(" W"@H@("!4:&4@0VAR;VUO<W!H97)E(&%N9"!3<&EC=6QE<R N+BXN+BXN
  400. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(" X"@H@("!4:&4@0V]R
  401. M;VYA(&%N9"!#;W)O;F%L($AO;&5S("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  402. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(" Y"@H@("!&;W)M<R!O9B!3;VQA<B!!8W1I=FET
  403. M>2 N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  404. M(#$P"@H@("!0;&%G97,@86YD($9A8W5L864@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  405. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$Q"@H@("!0<F]M:6YE
  406. M;F-E<R!A;F0@1FEL86UE;G1S("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  407. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$R"@H@("!3;VQA<B!&;&%R97,@+BXN+BXN+BXN
  408. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  409. M(#$T"@H@("!0;VQA<B!#87 @06)S;W)P=&EO;B!%=F5N=',@+BXN+BXN+BXN
  410. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$V"@H@("!3:6=N:69I
  411. M8V%N8V4@;V8@4W=E97 @1G)E<75E;F-Y($5V96YT<R N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  412. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$W"@H@("!4:&4@4VQO=VQY(%9A<GEI;F<@0V]M
  413. M<&]N96YT("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  414. M(#$W"@H@("!4>7!E($D@0G5R<W1S(&%N9"!2861I;R!.;VES92!3=&]R;7,@
  415. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$X"@H@("!4>7!E($E)
  416. M22!2861I;R!"=7)S=',@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  417. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$X"@H@("!4>7!E(%8@4F%D:6\@0G5R<W0@16UI
  418. M<W-I;VYS("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  419. M(#$Y"@H@("!4>7!E($E)(%)A9&EO($)U<G-T<R N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  420. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#$Y"@H@("!#;VYT:6YU
  421. M=6T@5'EP92!)5B!2861I;R!"=7)S=',@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  422. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#(P"@H@("!4:&4@16%R=&@G<R!-86=N971I8R!&
  423. M:65L9" N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @
  424. M(#(Q"@H@("!'96]M86=N971I8R!3=6)S=&]R;7,@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  425. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#(R"@H*"@H@(" @(" @
  426. M(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @($1E8V5M8F5R(#$S+" Q.3DP"@H*"@H*
  427. M(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" M(&EI("T*"@H@
  428. M("!'96]M86=N971I8R!3=&]R;7,@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  429. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#(S"@H@("!);VYO<W!H97)I8R!%
  430. M9F9E8W1S(&]F($=E;VUA9VYE=&EC(%-T;W)M<R N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  431. M+BXN+BXN+B @(#(T"@H@("!2861I;R!3:6=N86P@4')O<&%G871I;VX@+BXN
  432. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#(U"@H@
  433. M("!0<F]P86=A=&EO;B!O9B!63$8@4VEG;F%L<R N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  434. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#(V"@H@("!(1B!3:6=N86P@4')O
  435. M<&%G871I;VX@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  436. M+BXN+BXN+B @(#(V"@H@("!,;VYG+41I<W1A;F-E(%9(1B!3:6=N86P@4')O
  437. M<&%G871I;VX@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#(Y"@H@
  438. M("!#:&%R86-T97)I<W1I8W,@;V8@075R;W)A;"!!8W1I=FET>2 N+BXN+BXN
  439. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#,Q"@H@("!!=7)O<F%L(%)E;&%T
  440. M:6]N<VAI<"!W:71H($=E;VUA9VYE=&EC($%C=&EV:71Y("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  441. M+BXN+BXN+B @(#,Q"@H@("!3:6=N:69I8V%N8V4@;V8@075R;W)A)W,@=&\@
  442. M07-T<F]N;VUE<G,@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#,S"@H@
  443. M("!!=7)O<F%L($-L87-S:69I8V%T:6]N<R N+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  444. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#,S"@H@("!4:&4@26UP86-T<R!O
  445. M9B!'96]M86=N971I8R!3=&]R;7,@86YD(%-O;&%R($%C=&EV:71Y("XN+BXN
  446. M+BXN+BXN+B @(#,U"@H@("!-86=N971I8R!3=&]R;2!);F1U8W1I;VX@+BXN
  447. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#,V"@H@
  448. M("!!=&UO<W!H97)I8R!#:7)C=6QA=&EO;B!-;V1I9FEC871I;VYS("XN+BXN
  449. M+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#,X"@H@("!!=&UO<W!H97)I8R!0
  450. M<F5S<W5R92!297-P;VYS97,@=&\@4V]L87(@1FQA<F5S("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  451. M+BXN+BXN+B @(#,X"@H@("!!=&UO<W!H97)I8R!%;&5C=')I8V%L($5N:&%N
  452. M8V5M96YT<R!F;VQL;W=I;F<@36%J;W(@1FQA<F5S("XN+BXN+B @(#0P"@H@
  453. M("!'96]M86=N971I8R!%9F9E8W1S(&]N($%T;6]S<&AE<FEC(%!R97-S=7)E
  454. M("XN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+B @(#0R"@H@("!#;VYC;'5D:6YG(%)E
  455. M;6%R:W,@+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN+BXN
  456. M+BXN+BXN+B @(#0T"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"@H*"B @(" @(" @
  457. I(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @(" @1&5C96UB97(@,3,L(#$Y.3 *"@H@
  458.  
  459. end
  460.  
  461. ------------------------------
  462.  
  463. End of SPACE Digest V12 #690
  464. *******************
  465.